Rigetti Falls 5% as Q3 Revenue Drops 28% and 2026 Guidance Lags

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) reported third-quarter revenue of $1.4 million, down 28 percent year over year and well below Fiscal.ai's consensus estimate of $3.52 million. The stock trades at $11.52 this morning, down 5 percent, after the company posted its numbers after the bell on November 10. The quarter included no recognized hardware revenue at all.

The adjusted loss came in at $0.06 per share, also a miss against the $0.05 loss analysts expected. The damage spread unevenly across the sector. IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) sits at $34.22, down 2 percent, while D-Wave Quantum (NASDAQ: QBTS) is at $10.71, up 2 percent. The selling, in short, is concentrated in Rigetti.

Why does the 2026 outlook hinge on one machine in India?

Rigetti expects full-year 2026 revenue of about $20 million, trailing the $22.78 million analyst consensus compiled by Fiscal.ai. That single figure rests on one event: customer acceptance of a 108-qubit system ordered by India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), with the revenue recognized in the fourth quarter. A delay would push the outlook further below expectations. Revenue recognition here is not a formality; it is the business model.

On the November 10 earnings call, CEO Subodh Kulkarni was blunt about the state of the industry. "Our general view is that quantum computing is still very much in the R&D phase," he said. "We need to perfect the technology before we can really expect commercial sales to take off." He added that data center operators need clear proof that quantum machines beat classical computers before they commit capital. The technology is not there yet.

Two details softened the report. Rigetti's Cepheus-1-108Q system reached a 99.5 percent median two-qubit gate fidelity in the quarter, hitting its target. The balance sheet holds $497.1 million in cash and investments as of September 30, with no debt. Cash buys time; fidelity buys credibility. Neither buys revenue this quarter.

What did the analysts do?

Needham cut its price target to $15 from $31 and kept a Buy rating, attributing the shortfall to the timing of system deliveries. Mizuho trimmed its target to $17 from $22 and maintained an Outperform rating, citing "soft" guidance. Both firms treated the quarter as a scheduling problem rather than a technological one.

How do the peers compare?

IonQ's 2 percent decline is shallower than Rigetti's, and it arrives after the company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance on November 5. D-Wave's 2 percent gain follows a selloff on November 10, when its earnings showed the sector's commercial growing pains: revenue rose 20.7 percent year over year to $4.51 million, beating consensus, while its per-share loss missed expectations. Nine-month bookings at D-Wave jumped 611 percent. Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ: QUBT) rounds out the group.

The broader market adds friction. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee called the latest inflation report "borderline disturbing" as policymakers weigh further rate increases.

The business models explain the divergence. Rigetti builds superconducting, chiplet-based gate-model machines and sells them on-premises to governments, national labs and universities, alongside cloud access. That project-based model makes revenue lumpy, because recognition depends on customer acceptance of a small number of systems. IonQ runs a broader trapped-ion platform with its own foundry through SkyWater, plus security, networking and sensing lines. D-Wave sells production-ready annealing systems and cloud access while developing gate-model machines. Quantum Computing Inc. takes a photonic approach that runs at room temperature, without the cryogenic infrastructure superconducting systems demand.

What decides the fourth quarter?

The C-DAC acceptance is the pivotal event. A delay would compound pressure from rising operating expenses, a growing operating loss, and dilution from the U.S. Department of Commerce's equity stake. Supporters can point to the fidelity gains, the cash buffer, and a definitive agreement with the department worth up to $100 million, which underpins the push toward a 300-plus-qubit system by mid-2028. Until C-DAC accepts the machine, the full-year forecast remains a promise rather than a number.