Nvidia Down 30% From Its High, but the Sell-Off Shows Signs of Stalling

By Tom Whitfield

Nvidia shares sit more than 30 percent below their recent high after a bruising stretch of headlines, yet the technical picture compiled by StoneX trading analysts suggests the sell-off may be losing force rather than accelerating. The stock is holding above its September 2025 low, and the broader Nasdaq is bouncing from its 2025 high with momentum indicators stabilizing.

The analysis, published by StoneXTrading on TradingView, frames the current setup as a caution for short sellers rather than a confirmed buy signal for the chipmaker.

How far has Nvidia fallen?

The decline itself is the hardest number in the story. Nvidia has lost more than 30 percent from its peak, a drawdown that would qualify as a bear market on its own for any single stock. StoneX attributes the pressure to two streams of negative headlines: allegations surrounding the chief executive's personal conduct, described in the note as alleged infidelity, and reports connected to Chinese spies.

The analysts do not weigh the substance of those stories. Their concern is price action, and on that measure the damage has so far stopped at a defined floor. Nvidia is holding above its September 2025 low, a level the market has now tested and defended.

The takeaway: a third of the share price has evaporated, but the September low remains intact.

What is the Nasdaq telling traders?

The index-level signals form the second half of the argument. The Nasdaq is bouncing from its 2025 high, which in plain terms means the pullback from this year's peak has found buyers at a technically meaningful level.

Two momentum readings support that reading:

• The weekly RSI(14), a 14-period relative strength index that smooths price movement over weeks, is holding above 40. A reading above 40 on a weekly chart typically indicates a correction within an uptrend rather than a full trend reversal.
• The RSI(2), a fast two-period version of the same oscillator, is curling higher from oversold territory, the classic signature of short-term selling pressure exhausting itself.

Neither reading constitutes a buy signal on its own. Together, they describe a market where downside momentum has stalled, which is precisely the condition that punishes late entrants to a bearish trade.

The takeaway: the weekly trend has not broken, and the short-term bounce has begun.

Why the analysts are wary of shorting here?

StoneX makes a market-structure argument rather than a fundamental one. The firm writes that it "wouldn't be too surprised if much of the doom and gloom is already priced in," meaning the negative headlines may have already done their work on the share price.

Two supporting developments feed that view:

• CoreWeave, the AI infrastructure operator whose fortunes track demand for Nvidia's data center GPUs, rallied after its earnings report. StoneX reads this as evidence that "the AI trade is not completely dead. For now, at least."
• Nvidia reports earnings next week, an event the note flags as a catalyst that could tempt bargain hunters into the current discount.

The construction matters. The analysts do not claim the AI trade is healthy, only that it is not dead, and they append "for now, at least" to their own sentence. This is hedged language, and it is meant to be.

The takeaway: the bounce case rests on positioning and pricing, not on a claim that the controversy has been resolved.

What happens next?

The authors close with a direct warning: these signals "may not be compelling buy signals for Nvidia just yet, but they should at least serve as a caution for bears." Next week's earnings report will decide whether the September low holds as a floor or gives way, and until then StoneX sees a market where the pessimists hold the riskier position.